Phelps' Miscalculation

An obscure tidbit that you as a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints may have heard is that "Joseph Smith said that an eternity is 2.555 billion years long." I heard this again the other day, so I instigated an investigation. Christopher C. Smith, he exposes the origins of this idea in a 2008 blog post. Apparently the number comes from Times and Seasons, the Church's periodical at the time (1844). W. W. Phelps sent a letter to William Smith that was reproduced in the January 1st edition. The paragraph of concern is

[E]ternity, agreeably to the records found in the catacombs of Egypt, has been going on in this system, (not this world) almost two thousand five hundred and fifty five millions of years: and to know at the same time, that deists, geologists and others are trying to prove that matter must have existed hundreds of thousands of years;-it almost tempts the flesh to fly to God, or muster faith like Enoch to be translated and see and know as we are seen and known! (empasis added)

 Bruce R. McConkie quoted this figure in a 1987 speech given at BYU. It was written about in the Mormon Interpreter. So where did this number come from, and does it even make sense?

Look at the universe.

All analysts seem to agree that W. W. Phelps took the statements in Peter and Abraham that 1000 years on Earth is but a day to the Lord, the statement in D&C 77 that the Earth has 7000 years of temporal existence, and the fact that a terrestrial year consists of approximately 365 days, and derived a value from these. 1000*7000*365 = 2.555E9, precisely the number Phelps states. But let's perform unit analysis on this.

1000 Earth years	x 7000 Kolob years x	365 Kolob days	= 2.555E9 Earth years
1 Kolob day		1 Kolob year

Seems kosher, right? Not. There are a few grievous assumptions made in this calculation. First, there is no way of know how many years are in a Kolob year. Even in our own solar system you have planets whose years range from 0.24 to 248.1 Earth years (if you include Pluto). A planet that orbits our sun called Sedna has a year of around 12,000 Earth years. At is aphelion, it's over 900 times father from the sun than Earth is. So assuming a 365-day Kolob year is erroneous when most planets in existence vary from this.

Second false assumption, 7000 Kolob years. First, the 7000 number comes from D&C 77:6 where it's said that the 7 seals on the book that John the Beloved saw are the seven thousand years of the Earth's temporal existence. It further states that only about 6000 of those years have passed, so even if the calculation was accurate, you'd have to replace 7000 Kolob years with 6000. Reading the actual revelation of John reveals characteristics of each of the seals that are identifiable with historical events. The 7000 years are clearly referring to Earth years. It's silly to start assuming every period of time given in the scriptures are not what it appears. That would imply that the Millennium is going to be 365 million Earth years long, the same length as each of the seals.

Another issue. The creation story begins with the Earth; it doesn't touch upon previous events. In Moses 1:35 God says, "There are many worlds that have passed away by the word of my power." He's made countless worlds like Earth that have already passed through existence. If this universe is about 14 billion years old and the Earth 4.5, God's been around a lot longer than Phelp's calculation proposes. And He hasn't done anything that disagrees with what we observe. If we find proof that the Earth is 4.5E9 years old, then goshdarnit, that's when God made it. 

But proof is hard to find. Evidence is easier. You can draw multiple conclusions from evidence. You can only draw one (sound) conclusion from proof. People will debate how to interpret collected data. I am currently quite convinced on the dating of the Earth and universe.